Here's how it might go down, according to a trio of experts.
Donald Trump predicted
back in 2013
that the US would eventually go to war with Iran. At the time, Trump
was merely a rich guy and right-wing gadlfy criticizing Secretary of
State John Kerry on Fox News, but later, as a presidential candidate
then a president, his rhetoric and policies have been strikingly
antagonistic.
Trump
promised to renegotiate
Barack Obama's signature deal with Iran on nuclear weapons during the
2016 campaign, and though he hasn't done that, he has staffed his White
House with
people hostile toward Iran. That includes Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who has
implied that Iran and ISIS are on friendly terms.
Shortly after Trump took office, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen
attacked a Saudi ship, killing two people—and in pretty a wild leap leap of logic, the White House
described it as an Iranian attack. In April, Trump said Iran wasn't "
living up to the spirit" of the nuclear deal. During a May trip to the Middle East, Trump appeared to
side more aggressively with Saudi Arabia against Iran than past presidents, then
continued that anti-Iran rhetoric in Israel.
Over the weekend, a report claiming that the Saudi coastguard had
killed an Iranian fisherman, an announcement by Iran that it had
fired multiple ballistic missiles into eastern Syria to target ISIS in retaliation for an attack in Tehran, and the
shooting down of a Syrian plane by a US-led coalition only heightened tensions in the region.
This state of affairs has some people very worried. In
The Independent,
businessman and human rights activist Andrew McCleod warned that Trump
is on track to nuke Iran inside of two years. That's probably an
exaggeration, but how much of an exaggeration?
Ahmad Majidyar is director of the Middle East Institute's
IranObserved Project. In a recent paper, he described the US and Iran as being on a "
collision course"
in Iraq and Syria. The idea is that once ISIS is defeated, Iran-backed
militias and the US military will no longer have a common enemy. The
risk, Majidyar told me, is "some sort of possible—not very
likely—confrontation by the IRGC-led forces, and US-led forces in
Mosul."
But even without the conflict in Syria/Iraq, tensions
remain between Iran and the US, tensions that have only been exacerbated
by the Trump administration's foreign policy. So the question remains:
If the US were to actually bomb Iran itself—as has been advocated by
plenty of mainstream Republicans like
Arizona Senator John McCain—how and why would that happen? And how exactly would that conflict play out?
I posed these hypotheticals to Majidyar as well as international
relations scholar Stephen Zunes, and Omar Lamrani, a senior military
analyst at the military intelligence firm Stratfor. Here's a map of the
locations we discussed, for reference:
Step 1: Tensions in Syria boil over
While Iran does provoke
the US a bit by opposing Saudi Arabia—a close American ally—in Yemen,
Syria is the likeliest potential flashpoint to any serious US-Iran
conflict. According to Lamrani, Iran's dream is to have a steady flow of
commercial traffic clear to the west coast of Lebanon, which it plans
to achieve by creating a supply route that goes from Tehran to Baghdad
to Syria to Lebanon. In Iran's view, the US is blocking this effort.
With this tension in the air, Trump could jeopardize the nuclear
agreement by sanctioning Iran in a way Iran thinks is unfair. "The
agreement is on tenuous ground, and if it does collapse, and the
Iranians [could] go forward with more ballistic missile testing,"
Lamrani said, adding that fallout from that testing could potentially
trigger a war.
(It's important to note here that no one I spoke to felt that an actual war was in any way
likely, barring some black swan event to trigger it.)
Step 2: A terror attack
The
main scenario Zunes thinks could result in war is a terror attack
perceived as having been sponsored by Iran and carried out against a
target such as a US embassy in Europe.
"Iran has cells across the world," Lamrani told me, citing Iran's well-known
connections to the terrorist group Hezbollah. He added that Iran would most likely only activate its Hezbollah cells if it were attacked first.
But
according to Zunes, a terror attack wouldn't have to be carried out by
Iran or one of its proxies. Instead, the whole conflict might be
triggered by "an attack by some unknown
Salafi
group—an al Qaeda, ISIS type," he told me. Frustrated by Iran's
belligerent behavior, he says, "Trump could blame [the act of terror] on
an Iranian-backed group, and use that as an excuse to attack Iran."
This isn't unheard of. There was speculation
just after 9/11 that a 1996 attack in Saudi Arabia, pinned on Iran, was actually the work of al Qaeda. (The US still
officially blames Iran.)
Step 3: The US starts bombing Iran's nuclear facilities
"The idea was that we just bomb, and bomb, and bomb, and try to destroy as many strategic assets as possible," Zunes told me.
This was a plan
proposed by Republican Senator Tom Cotton
in 2015. Rather than an invasion, he said on a radio show, "It would be
something more along the lines of what President Clinton did in
December 1998 during Operation Desert Fox," a series of strikes on Iraqi
military targets.
During this phase of our hypothetical conflict,
Lamrani told me, US intelligence will have information at hand designed
to make sure the attacks constitute "a very very comprehensive plan,"
relying on air power, not just cruise missiles fired from the sea. "B-2s
with those massive ordnance penetrators" would be involved, Lamrani
said, referring to the
MOAB—the largest non-nuclear bomb ever dropped.
Step 4: Iran mobilizes its navy
Iran is very adept as using its navy to taunt American vessels. In 2016, speedboats buzzed around the Persian Gulf,
forcing a US ship to change course. A couple days later, Trump the presidential candidate said he would
blow up any Iranian boats that tried that against
his navy. Then they
tried it again in March and Trump's navy didn't blow them up.
But
the US Navy is very good a blowing things up, and doing so in extremely
dramatic fashion—something Trump obviously knows. "The Iranians are
vulnerable when they're all bunched up in their ports, and not at sea,"
Lamrani told me. "For them to have any chance at all, they have to be
very, very fast."
Before the US could even nail down the
specifics of its strategy, he said, the Iranians would "disperse their
units, so their minelayers are already at sea, dropping mines, and their
forces are already attacking before the US brings in all its forces to
completely annihilate the Iranians."
Step 5: The oil trade pretty much stops
If Iran can't knock out a US cruiser with its navy, what can its navy do?
It
can interrupt international business. If you think of the Persian Gulf
as the hallway that takes you to the vital ports belonging to Bahrain,
Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, then the door to that
hallway is the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, where part of the Arabian
Peninsula juts off and almost pokes into Iran. Imagine Iran closing
that door.
"That's
a massive shock to the global economy," Lamrani said. He doesn't think
Iran would try anything so drastic given that it would cut off not just
the oil trade, but food to countries like Qatar and Bahrain, bringing
down the wrath of the entire Arab world.
But if you're a
container ship captain, Lamrani said, a war in the area is enough to
keep you out of there unless you know it's safe. So one way or another,
until the US shows up with ships to clear the strait, "Technically, the
threat, and the position of their anti-ship missiles, is going to be a
de facto block," he told me.